Tianjin Zinc Ingot Premiums and Discounts Reach an Inflection Point What's Next? [SMM Analysis]

Premiums in Tianjin gradually rose in December. How will premiums and discounts move going forward?

Supply side, smelters of major brands in Tianjin largely operated normally in December. According to SMM, with the export window remaining open earlier, brands like Hongye and Zijin were actively exported from Tianjin, leading to strong market purchases and tight supply. Concurrently, shortages in East China widened the Shanghai-Tianjin price spread, diverting some Tianjin-bound brands to East China. This reduced the circulating zinc ingot volume in Tianjin, driving continuous destocking of zinc ingot inventories and pushing up Tianjin premiums.

Demand side, zinc downstream demand in Tianjin is mainly concentrated in galvanizing enterprises. Since December, some end-user projects entered a year-end rush to meet deadlines, boosting orders for galvanized pipes. Several enterprises increased production and finished product inventories at the month's start. As 2025 is the final year of the "14th Five-Year Plan," many projects accelerated work, keeping orders for products like steel towers relatively robust. Overall, demand remained resilient, supporting good zinc ingot demand and contributing to rising Tianjin premiums.

Looking ahead, with the export window closed, zinc ingots previously stockpiled for export are entering the market. Meanwhile, renewed environmental protection measures in Tianjin and Hebei are dampening consumption, and transport restrictions due to environmental policies are affecting zinc ingot deliveries to end-users. Weakening zinc ingot demand and a persistent oversupply in the market are expected to lead to a gradual decline in Tianjin premiums and discounts